Prop firm pass probability simulator
Pick a firm and size, enter your win rate, reward-to-risk and risk per trade, and see how often a strategy with that edge would reach the profit target before the drawdown or daily loss limit stops it. A what-if tool, not a prediction.
- Pass probability
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- Fail: drawdown
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- Fail: daily loss limit
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- Median days to pass
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Same strategy under the three drawdown types
Your inputs, only the drawdown rule changes. This is what the rule itself costs you.
How the pass probability changes with win rate
Your other inputs stay the same. Below break-even (shaded in text) the edge is negative and the tool mostly measures how fast the drawdown is reached.
How this is calculated
The simulator plays 3,000 evaluations. Each run starts at the starting balance and plays up to the number of days you set, with the number of trades per day you set.
- Every trade wins with your win rate (gain = risk × reward-to-risk) or loses your fixed risk amount. Trades are independent; there are no streaks, costs or slippage.
- Intraday trailing: the floor follows the highest balance after every trade. End of day: it moves only at the close. Static: it never moves. Where the firm's lock level is published, the floor stops trailing there.
- A run fails when the balance touches the floor. A hard daily loss limit fails the run when the day's loss reaches it; a soft limit only stops trading for that day.
- A run passes when, at the close of a day, profit has reached the target and the minimum trading days are done. Phase 2, consistency rules, news windows and payout rules are not modelled.
- The margin of error next to the pass rate is the 95 % noise from using 3,000 runs. It says nothing about whether your inputs are realistic.
Frequently asked questions
What does the pass probability simulator calculate?
It plays 3,000 random evaluations. Every trade wins or loses at random with the win rate and reward-to-risk ratio you enter, and the balance is checked against the firm’s published drawdown rule, daily loss limit and profit target. The share of runs that reach the target first is the pass probability.
Is this a prediction of my chance to pass?
No. It answers "if my real edge were X, how much do the rules alone cost me?". Your true win rate is unknown, trades are not independent in real life, and the tool ignores news windows, consistency rules, commissions and slippage. Most traders do not pass an evaluation, so treat a high number as a best case, not as a promise.
Why does the same strategy pass more often with an end-of-day or static drawdown?
An intraday trailing drawdown follows your highest balance during the trade, so open profit that gives back some of its gains moves the floor up and takes room away. An end-of-day drawdown only moves after the close, and a static one never moves. The comparison table runs your exact inputs under all three.
Why do I need a seed?
The simulator uses a seeded random generator, so the same inputs and seed give the same result and a shared link shows the same numbers. Change the seed to see how much the result moves by chance; the margin of error shown next to the pass rate is the same effect.
These calculators use simplified, textbook versions of each rule and are not financial advice. Always read the firm’s own rules.
More: Drawdown simulator · Strategy fit · Profit target planner · Drawdown types explained